If you've been waiting for a sign that the market is turning, June's numbers are it. Greater Toronto Area home sales rose 9.4% year-over-year, even as new listings fell nearly 13%. That combination — more buyers showing up, fewer sellers listing — is exactly how a market starts to tighten.
But there's a catch, and it's the reason we're not calling this a seller's market yet: prices haven't caught up to the activity. The GTA benchmark price is still down about 5% year-over-year, and the average sold price dipped slightly month-over-month to just over $1,058,000. Sales are up. Prices are still soft. That gap is where the opportunity is right now, for both sides of the transaction.
What This Means If You're Buying Downtown
Downtown condo buyers are in a genuinely unusual window. Condo sales activity has been the strongest-growing segment in the GTA, yet condo prices remain the weakest of any housing type. That's a mismatch that won't last — once absorption catches up with the backlog of recently completed pre-construction units, pricing power shifts back toward sellers.
Practical takeaways if you're shopping downtown right now:
Negotiate on days-on-market, not just list price. Listings are sitting an average of 29 days before an offer — longer than a year ago. That's leverage.
Look at completed buildings with lingering inventory. Buildings still working through closings from the pre-construction wave often have motivated sellers.
Don't wait for a "bottom" signal. Annual price declines are narrowing, not accelerating. Timing the exact floor is harder than it looks in hindsight.
What This Means If You're Selling Downtown
If you're listing a downtown property, the reduced competition from other sellers is your biggest asset. Fewer new listings means your unit gets more attention per buyer, even if per-unit prices are flat.
Price to the current benchmark, not last year's peak. Overpricing in a market where buyers are comparing options closely will just add to your days-on-market.
Lean into the "recovery" narrative in your listing marketing. Buyers responding to headlines about a market turning the corner are primed to act — meet them with a listing that looks move-in ready and well-presented.
Consider timing around fall. Some forecasters expect a busier second half of 2026 as tightening inventory meets steady demand.
The Bottom Line
Downtown Toronto is in a rare split-market moment: sales momentum is clearly building, but pricing hasn't followed yet. That's a window, not a permanent condition. Whether you're buying or selling, the smartest move right now is to act on current data rather than wait for last cycle's market to come back.
Thinking about buying, selling, or leasing downtown or across the GTA? Let's talk about what this market actually means for your specific situation and timeline.
