With the Toronto real estate market shifting subtly, staying ahead matters more than ever. Whether you're a first-time buyer or thinking of upgrading, knowing what to expect in the coming year can help you navigate smartly—avoid surprises, seize opportunities, and move forward with confidence.
1. Prices & Sales Are Easing… But Signs of Stabilization Are Emerging
As of August 2025, home sales in the GTA dipped 1.8% month-over-month, and the benchmark price edged slightly lower to around C$978,100—continuing a trend of flat or declining prices since late 2024. Annual decline sits at about 5.2%.
Current market conditions lean toward buyers, driven by elevated inventory and modest affordability improvements.
2. Condos Continue to See Deeper Corrections
The Toronto condo market is undergoing a reset: TD Economics forecasts total price drops of 15–20% from the late 2023 highs, with further declines anticipated into late 2025.
July 2025 data shows average condo prices in the GTA falling 9.3% year-over-year, reaching a four-year low around C$651,000.
3. Buyers Getting Encouraged—But Recovery Is Moderate
While the market isn’t roaring back yet, RBC projects a 7.9% rebound in home resales for 2026—though activity levels will still lag pre-pandemic averages.
Economic headwinds—like affordability and tight labour markets—are expected to limit rapid shifts.
4. Government Planning for Long-Term Supply Gaps
Canada needs around 3.5 million additional homes by 2030 to return to affordability, translating to about 430,000–480,000 units per year—double the current pace.
Meanwhile, the overall Canadian residential real estate market—driven by rising demand, especially in rentals—remains on a growth trajectory, projected to expand at a ~5% compound annual growth rate through 2030.
Final Summary
Over the next 12 months, expect:
Continued modest corrections in GTA home prices—with further stability ahead.
A deeper downturn in condos, but signs of leveling out by 2026.
A moderate recovery in resale activity, hampered by ongoing affordability challenges.
Long-term supply initiatives aimed at closing the affordability gap—though results will take time.
If you're entering the market soon, your strategy should be measured, local-data-informed, and ready for gradual change—not a sprint.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are condo prices dropping in Toronto?
Yes—recent data shows average condo prices have dropped approximately 9% year-over-year, with expert forecasts projecting total declines of 15–20% from 2023 highs.
What is the housing market forecast for GTA in 2025?
The market is seeing slight price declines of ~5% and sluggish sales activity. Analysts expect home resale to rebound modestly in 2026, but at levels still below pre-pandemic norms.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Toronto?
Affordability is improving slightly—thanks to price softening and inventory growth—but challenges remain. It’s a cautious “maybe”—especially for buyers with strong financing and flexibility.
Will the Toronto condo market recover in 2026?
Experts expect improvement starting in 2026 after continuing declines through 2025, particularly as the investor market resets and affordability stabilizes.
What is the housing market prediction for Canada in 2030?
The Canadian residential real estate market is projected to grow at a ~5% annual rate, driven by demand for rental properties and population growth—though affordability remains under pressure.